Thailand’s Political Shakeups

Over the course of a tumultuous year, Thailand’s political landscape has been profoundly reshaped in a dramatic turn of events, starting with the dissolution of the Move Forward Party, followed by the ousting of incumbent Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin and his Cabinet, and the subsequent election of political heir Paetongtarn Shinawatra. While some of the changes were not necessarily unexpected, the future of Thai politics appears much more complicated than where it began in the 2023 election.

Since the beginning of this year, Thailand’s political experts had anticipated the dissolution of the Move Forward Party (MFP) due to their push for proposed changes to the lese majeste law (Article 112). The MFP’s motion was eventually ruled treasonous by Thailand’s Constitutional Court, leading the dissolution of the MFP on August 7. Sirikanya Tansakun, former MFP Deputy Leader, announced the formation of a successor party, the People’s Party, which is led by MP Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut.

A week later, on August 14, Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin was removed from office, and his Cabinet was dissolved following a Constitutional Court verdict regarding an unlawful cabinet appointment. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and fourth member of the family to lead the country, emerged as the new Prime Minister and head of the ruling Pheu Thai Party (PTP).

Against this development, 143 politicians now face a 60-day deadline to affiliate themselves with a new party within a political environment that appears increasingly resistant to the rise of progressive movements. Yet the progressives will not be going away anytime soon. MFP won 151 seats in the last election, outperforming even PTP as the leading coalition. This strong showing, driven by significant youth support disillusioned by ongoing political conflicts and judicial decisions, hints at continued influence and possibly even greater gains in future elections.

But while PTP and Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra will need to think about how to address the swing of progressive sentiments, their priorities in the immediate future will be on promoting economic growth and stability, something her predecessor and her current government faced heavy criticism for. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thailand’s youngest prime minister, has formed a new 35-member Cabinet, retaining several key members from the previous government, including Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira, which suggests a pragmatic approach to maintaining policy continuity and political stability.

In her first press conference on September 7 since being sworn in, the Prime Minister vowed to continue with Srettha’s policies, but it remains to be seen whether these key policies will be enough to push Thailand’s growth beyond the predicted 2.7% in 2024, which lags considerably behind its Southeast Asian neighbours.

Paetongtarn’s short- and long-term policy goals

Prime Minister Paetongtarn outlined her government’s short- and long-term economic strategy to Parliament on September 12. In addition to the previous government’s policy aims, she plans to address household debt, support small and medium enterprises, and generate jobs in the short term. She also committed to continuing the Digital Wallet scheme and legalising informal sectors to increase public revenue, while addressing energy costs and establishing a Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

In tourism and agriculture, the government seeks to rejuvenate Thailand’s “Kitchen of the World” initiative, introduce new Agri-Tech solutions, and revamp the visa system to attract more tourists. Long-term goals focus on transitioning to a green economy, boosting Thailand’s position as a medical hub, and strengthening international relations through proactive diplomacy and free trade agreement negotiations.

Public confidence in government is key

Public confidence will be a critical factor for the new government’s ability to implement policy effectively. The future public opinion will be likely influenced by the government’s economic performance and its ability to deliver on promised policies.

The latest NIDA poll results suggest that majority of the public lacks confidence in Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s government. Over a third of pollers (36.03%) are concerned about the government’s ability to deliver on its promises, while a small section of the public is concerned about the possibility of corruption or a crisis due to weak administration (24.89%) and instability stemming from anti-government protests (21.76%).

Perhaps to no one’s surprise, the Thai public are most concerned about Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s age and lack of experience, as well as Thaksin Shinawatra’s influence on the current government (32.14%), which they believe to be negatively impacting PTP’s popularity (40.23%).

PM Paetongtarn, her government and the PTP will need to tread carefully to assuage voters’ fears and concerns and set themselves apart from previous governments and the Prime Minister’s family’s political history, if they do not wish to lose public confidence and support and lose more ground to the progressives.

All eyes on the new government

Experts anticipate that the new Thai government will introduce a more substantial economic policy by year-end. Current economic indicators reflect risks, including stock and bond market fluctuations and reduced international investor confidence.

Prime Minister Paetongtarn’s administration faces significant challenges, including scrutiny over political appointments, legal disputes, and public scepticism. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra will have her hands full, and all eyes will be on her and her government in their first few months in office.

‍